Opinion: Analyzing the latest election polls in Utah and the nation

For political junkies like us, nothing sparks the childlike joy of Christmas morning quite like a fresh set of political polls. We discuss the latest election forecasts.
Jan 6. BLM protests. An assassination attempt on a former president. America has seen its fair share of political violence recently. A new Deseret News/HarrisX survey shows most U.S. voters, regardless of party affiliation, believe there is a real possibility of political violence before and after Election Day. Should they be concerned?
Pignanelli: “Nonviolence is the answer to the crucial political moral questions of our time.” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
If voters had responded to this question 12 years ago, the results would be remarkably different, as there was nominal rioting then.
However, the nation suffers a history of hostile reactions to political events stretching back before the birth of our republic. My experiences as a child of the ’60s and early ’70s reaffirm this tragic legacy. The protests against the 2016 Trump election, massive demonstrations after the 2020 George Floyd killing and 2021 post-election hostilities are recent reminders of our troubled heritage.
We are enduring an unusual election, and another strange episode affecting a candidate could trigger a nasty preelection response. Regardless of what happens in November, I worry that too many Americans will take to the streets. Healing must be the first order of political business in 2025.
Cowley: Neither party is without radical factions that could pose a threat if their team doesn’t win on Nov. 5. Fringe activists do not represent the majority of voters and I pray any protests are peaceful.
America deserves leaders who will model civility and decorum. Donald Trump claims the 2020 election was fraudulent, while Kamala Harris portrays a Trump victory as an existential threat to democracy. Both sides should start now, not wait for Election Day, to ensure the peaceful transfer of power, a hallmark of our nation’s successful governance.
According to a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll conducted by HarrisX, most Utah voters said they approve of Gov. Spencer Cox’s endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Yet Trump performed the worst in Utah of any red state on Super Tuesday. What accounts for Utah voters’ change of heart?
Pignanelli: The problem for Cox is he has a conscience and socializes his inner quandaries. Most Republicans share the concerns over Trump’s behavior that Cox has broadcasted. But they don’t have his public megaphone and are not subject to critiques. Cox legitimately believed that Trump would possibly be a different person after the assassination attempt and reached out to him for that reason. The former president is the standard-bearer for the party with which Cox shares the ballot, and the Utah GOP wants team players. Cox demonstrated thoughtfulness in his admirable selection process, but such is not always politically astute.
Cowley: Utah is often criticized as a one-party state where voters unthinkingly cast ballots for anyone with an “R” next to their name. Donald Trump’s repeated poor performance in the Beehive State indicates something else — Utahns place a premium on ethics and integrity and expect the same from their elected officials. However, they don’t always get it. Both presidential candidates have plenty of moral failings. I respect politicians like Cox who defy political pressures and follow their conscience, even when I disagree with the outcome.
Cox and Utah voters have expressed their frustrations with Trump’s antics but at the end of the day want someone in the White House who will promote policies that serve our state and nation. Utah witnessed a Trump administration and Biden/Harris administration. The evidence is clear: Utah thrived under the former.
Gov. Cox and Congressman John Curtis (now vying for senate) have large leads ahead of their Democrat competitors. The Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll reveals Cox leads with 56% and 17% for Brian King, and Curtis also with 56% to 22% for Caroline Gleich. (The remaining percentages in each race were for other candidates or undecided.) What accounts for their strong popularity, and is there any hope for an upset in these races?
Pignanelli: History documents that Democrats will increase their share of votes on Nov. 5 to approximately 30%. With some notable exceptions, those were the standard results for Democrats in 21st-century Senate and gubernatorial races. The Republican nominees are also likely to increase their percentages.
The Democrat candidates are articulate and intelligent. Thus, they could benefit if a huge controversy or scandal erupts, either at the top or inside the state.
Cowley: It is interesting that Cox and Curtis, who can both be described as moderate Republicans, have such significant leads in statewide races. Is this an indication that the stranglehold the Republican Party has over Utah is loosening? Unlikely. What it does indicate is that voters like pragmatic leaders who demonstrate civility and a willingness to work across the aisle. Curtis has shown tremendous leadership in environmental policies, and Cox has demonstrated compassion for transgender students, both while sticking to their Republican ethos.
An upset in either race seems as likely as Frank “Pig”nanelli learning to fly.
Republican Renae Cowley is a political consultant, lobbyist, social media influencer and professional rodeo athlete. Email: [email protected]. Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser who served as a Democrat in the Utah State Legislature. Email: [email protected].